AN ASSESSMENT OF IPCC 20TH CENTURY CLIMATE SIMULATIONS USING THE 15-YEAR SEA LEVEL RECORD FROM ALTIMETRY

摘要

Recently, multiple ensemble climate simulations have been produced for the forthcoming Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Nearly two dozen coupled oceanatmosphere models have contributed output for a variety of climate scenarios. One scenario, the climate of the 20th century experiment (20C3M), produces model output that can be compared to the long record of sea level provided by altimetry. Generally, the output from the 20C3M runs is used to initialize simulations of future climate scenarios. Hence, validation of the 20C3M experiment results is crucial to the goals of the IPCC. We present comparisons of global mean sea level (GMSL), global mean steric sea level change, and regional patterns of sea level change from these models to results from altimetry, tide gauge measurements, and reconstructions.