THE CONSTRUCTION AND APPLICATION OF THE SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELS FOR THE OIL'S EXPLORATION AND EXPLOITATION

摘要

This paper analyzes the internal information feed-back structure and mechanism, and cause-and-effect relations in exploring and exploiting the oil resources. Based on the latest data of X oil field, it established an interactive computer-based economics model using the principle and methods of the system dynamics. By comparing with the real data, the result of this model is similar with real data. What is more, this thesis simulates and predicts the situation of exploration and exploitation of X oil field in six years, suggesting that this oil field should enhance recovery ratio , keep steady increase of total investment and cut down cost that are necessary for the healthy development of oil field. In short, this model supplies scientific foundation for policy decision department.