On the flood risk of the main channel in middle route ofthe Water Transfer Project from South to North

摘要

The main channel in the middle route of the Water Transfer Project from South to North (MCSN)crosses thousands of rivers and subjects to the impact of flood.If the abnormal flood occurs in any crossingrivers, the cross structures will be damaged and the water transfer system will be discontinued.Based on risktheory, the paper first proposed a risk assembling model about two-dimension joint probability distribution.Thenit presented an assessment method on flood damage risk of the whole MCSN by continuously combining everytwo crossing river flood risks.At last, taking the main channel of the Water Transfer Project from South to North(MCSN) in Hebei province as an example, the flood damage risk in the channel of Hebei province was estimatedand some practical flood data were used to certify the rationality of the outcome.The results showed theflood damage risk of the whole channel in Hebei province was about one time in 30 years.Therefore, the channelis secure to transfer water.The research provides a useful scientific proof for the feasibility study about the MCSN.