The Use of System Dynamics in Assessing Nuclear Energy System Futures

摘要

The role of nuclear energy in future sustainable energy systems is subject of many debates worldwide. The assessment of nuclear energy systems asks for a multi-disciplinary look into the development of nuclear energy according to the sustainability dimensions, I.e. economics, environmental and socio-political.Modeling the worldwide nuclear reactor park including all supply chain details, I.e. the nuclear fuel cycle, demands for an integrated nuclear energy system model which also includes feedback loops representing physical feedbacks within the system as well as, and most prominently, socio-political feedbacks in the decision-making on the various available deployment pathways for nuclear energy. Despite the availability since the early 1960s of detailed model-codes for nuclear reactors covering physic, supply chain and economic aspects of nuclear energy, development of a truly system dynamics view on nuclear energy development only recently gained worldwide interest.Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) started in 2000 with the development of such integrated nuclear energy system models, I.e. DYMOND and more recently DANESS. These models are based on system dynamics modeling used in various industry sectors and allowing modeling the full mass-flow chain of time-varying mixes of nuclear reactor plants and associated fuel cycle options. Several other sub-models are coupled to the mass-flow kernel calculating heat loads, economics, life cycle inventory, and several other parameters and feedback decision-making loops important in the assessment of nuclear energy futures.This paper will bring an overview on the need for a system dynamics view on nuclear energy system development, the role that system dynamics modeling may play in drafting nuclear energy system scenarios and the modeling of such system dynamics view of nuclear energy systems in the DANESS-code developed using Ithink.