A Decision Support System for Emerald Ash Borer EradicationUsing Spatial-Dynamic Modeling

摘要

Recently, an invasive Asian beetle known as the Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) (Agrilus planipennisColeoptera: Buprestidae) has emerged as a threat to Ash trees in the Midwestern United Statesand Canada (McCullough and Katovich 2004). Significant infestations in Michigan and nearbyareas have all but doomed nearly one billion native ash trees. This paper presents an argumentfor the establishment of a widely accessible knowledgebase of information on the EAB’s spreadcapabilities. We argue that spatial dynamic modeling stands as a flexible and powerful decisionsupport system platform. We present initial simulations of EAB spread scenarios constructedusing tree information and land use data collected for DuPage County, IL, an uninfectedsuburban county in the Chicago metropolitan area. These simulations test policies focused onimpeding the costly spread of the beetle. This analysis also presents a framework for furtherstudies assessing the economic impacts on municipalities and counties due to tree removal costsand aesthetic damage. Our work points to human driven movement as the major vector for EABspread throughout our study area. Here, the focus falls on the ability of state and countyimplemented firewood quarantines to act as effective policies for slowing EAB spread.