Combining Hydrology and Economics in a Systems DynamicsApproach: Modeling Water Resources for the San Juan Basin

摘要

Water supply is a hydrologic phenomenon, whereas water demand is largely driven byhuman wants and needs. The combination of these two systems, hydrology andeconomics, is necessary for accurate modeling of our water resources. Moreover, intimes of drought or water scarcity it is the human behavioral component that willdetermine whether a region’s water supply can be sustained. The stakeholders of the San Juan Basin are many and varied, from Indian tribes, agriculture interests, and municipalities, to recreational fisherman, power generators and conservationists. Stakeholders must make policy decisions regarding allocation and prioritization of wateramong competing uses. A system dynamics simulation model for the San Juan watershed(located in the states of New Mexico and Colorado) is developed. The model can be usedto quantify the economic tradeoffs between competing uses and gauge the effects ofclimate change on river flows in the San Juan watershed.