ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OFSITE EXPLORATION PROGRAMS USINGSTOCHASTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING

摘要

Site exploration programs are generally used to mitigate geologic uncertainty associated withunderground projects. Developing the optimal exploration program for a subsurface project isan extremely challenging task due to the difficulty to assess its economic value in advanceand in a quantitative and systematic manner. This paper presents a methodology to evaluatethe economic value of sequential subsurface exploration programs by using stochasticdynamic programming. The paper illustrates the application of site exploration programs as arisk reduction strategy for underground projects. A sequential site exploration program isstructured as a stochastic dynamic programming model. Effects of test results on geologicprediction are analyzed using Bayes' theorem. Preposterior analysis is performed to evaluatethe economic value of the program based on the concept of value of information. Asequential site exploration program is used to illustrate the application of the proposedmethodology.