Fractal Structure of Aquatic Product Wholesale Priceand Prediction Based on it

摘要

The rule of price fluctuation is the basis of forecasting. Multifractal structure put forward byMandelbrot is the most comprehensive model describing price fluctuation. This paper analyzed theprice time series of carp from Xinfadi market in the city of Beijing. From power chart, we can findprice income distributing of different time scales has fractal character, for more research by theinformation-dimension Dq , price time series is justified to has Multifractal approach, based on thisdiscovery, fractal theory can be used to study the aquatic product wholesale price fluctuation.According to fractal structure of aquatic product wholesale price, this paper brought forward somemeasures for prediction of price. Wavelet packet decomposition can be adopted to distill character ofMultifractal structure, and then apply artificial neural network to forecast the future price, the bestwavelet packet decomposition and parameters of neural network can be searched and selected byGA arithmetic.