MIL-STD-882C contains a matrix that correlates the probability of occurrence of a mishap versus the perceivedconsequence of that mishap. This matrix is used by the safety professional to generate a subjective “feel” for theoverall safety of a system, both before and after mishap mitigation activities. The U.S. Navy has adapted this matrixslightly to reflect their concepts of mishap risk.An on-going concern is the manner in which this matrix considers Catastrophic mishaps. The death of oneindividual or the material loss of $1,000,000 is treated the same as the loss of 1,000 individuals or a multi-billiondollar aircraft carrier. An old Navy system safety publication (NAVORD OD44942) tried to take suchconsiderations into account, but this is not reflected in current Navy methodology.This paper will examine proposed modifications to the Mishap Risk Index (MRI) to better account for the magnitudeof a Catastrophic loss, and will discuss the advantages and disadvantages of going this route.
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