Previous studies have forecasted the future benefits associated with the Department ofEnergy's (DOE's) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) programs. Thesestudies have focused on the impacts of programmatic activities given expected economic andbudget situations, and an assumption of complete success. These benefits have invariably beenrepresented as a point estimate, or series of point estimates through time.As the government climate evolves to one with a greater emphasis on portfoliomanagement, it is anticipated that traditional benefits analysis will evolve to a more ex antedecisional activity that will integrate portfolio analysis and program planning with impactanalysis and Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) compliance. A consideration ofthe uncertainty associated with point estimates of program impacts will almost certainly alter therepresentation and consideration of this portfolio. Further, R&D decision makers need to be ableto look at alternative assumptions of future markets and performance of future technologies inorder to gain a better understanding of the range of potential impacts of the R&D portfolio.Comparisons with past benefits analyses have illustrated that changes in assumptionssuch as proposed technology cost, performance, and size of potential market can significantlyaffect the benefits forecast. This study proposes a new framework for incorporating alternativescenarios into a portfolio tool that provides resulting energy savings estimates given changesfrom reference-case conditions.The framework can be changed by altering factors such as the R&D budget responsefunctions, alternative macro assumptions (fuel prices, GDP growth, etc.), programmaticinteraction scenarios (leveraging efforts, etc), alternative market outlooks (floorspace growth,etc), and alternative program objectives.
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