Dynamics of Managerial Interventionin Complex Systems

摘要

Research, as well as decades of working with managers from diverse cultures, nationalities,and industries, has exposed consistent counter productive patterns of behaviour in relation todecision making in complex systems. In this regard, managers appear to exhibit anunmistakeable tendency to “over intervene” in the systems (companies, organizations,communities, etc) for which they are responsible hence generating unnecessary fluctuationsand instability in their organizations. Maani, et al (2004), and Sterman, et al (1989; 2000)have studied these phenomena in experimental and simulated environments respectively.Anecdotal evidence, as well as research results, highlights a number of mental models andassumptions commonly held by managers. These are outlined below:1. Dramatic change should lead to dramatic (positive) results. Our research shows thatoften the opposite happens.2. The more change initiatives (interventions), the better the results. Again our researchshows that “over-intervention” is counter-productive.3. Managers often ignore “soft” variables (eg, morale, stress, burnout, loyalty, etc) to thedetriment of their organizations. Yet, “soft” variables are powerful predictors of longtermperformance.4. Managers are often oblivious to “systems delays”. Lack of awareness/attention todelay undermines performance and inhibits system stability.5. Organizations and managers often judge performance by short-term results.Experience shows that expectation of short-term results is unrealistic and misleadingand can lead to counteracting outcomes as performance often declines before itimproves.6. Organizations and managers tend to use too many performance measures (ie, KPIs).As what gets measured impacts performance, excessive and misguided measures canlead to poor results and unexpected consequences.7. Managers generally focus on “what to dos”. It is not enough to know what needs tobe done. Order and timing of actions are as important as the actions themselves.The propositions and observations outlined above collectively form the research questionsposed in this paper: “How do the style (extent) and frequency of change and theinterpretation of feedback affect the outcomes of interventions in organizations?” In thisresearch, realistic simulation models of organizations (Microworlds) are employed as proxyfor complex systems. Research subjects comprise MBA and graduate business students andpracticing managers. The paper deals with systems thinking theory and practice in complexdecision-making and their implications for transforming managers and organizations toachieve sustainable success.