A Model to Understand Population Decline of the Devil’s Hole Pupfish (Cyprinodon diabolis) and Support Habitat Management Decisions

摘要

This paper describes a system dynamics simulation model created to help the Devil'sHole Pupfish Recovery Team understand reasons for population decline since the mid-1990s andto evaluate potential interventions to reverse the population decline. After intensive efforts in the1970s to stabilize the water level in Devil's Hole, the population of the Devil's Hole Pupfishshowed slight but steady increase from the 1970s until the mid-1990s. The Team is seeking waysto reverse the recent population decline in the native habitat, but has limited information aboutthe system as well as limited resources for data collection. The focus of this study is thedevelopment of a system dynamics model that can help the Team understand the reasons for thepopulation decline, identify critical parameters that should be monitored to anticipate futurepopulation changes, and help find habitat management levers that can reverse the populationdecline.