A Bayesian Network-Based Risk Assessment Framework for the Impact of Climate Change on Infrastructure

摘要

In the last few decades, global warming and climate change have had great impact on infrastructures. Increasingly frequent extreme weather conditions, such as heat wave, severe cold, floods, and earthquakes, significantly change the construction and operation process of infrastructures. Huge social and economic lost raises the awareness to address and alleviate possible risks resulted from climate change. Proper assessment approach is needed to appropriately evaluate the added risks from climate change. This research discusses the features of climate change risk assessment, and Bayesian Networks method is proven to be an effective tool to construct the assessment model due to its features. This paper proposes to develop a Bayesian Networks-based risk assessment framework to evaluate the impact of climate change on the infrastructures. The risk assessment steps are presented using a case study of high speed railway operation.