UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT BY MEANS OF SIMULATION

摘要

The application of Simulation Based Reliability Assessment (SBRA) to Civil Engineering structures subjected to seismic loads is presented. SBRA is performed by using bounded histograms to represent variable material and geometric properties as well as variable load effects and makes use of the Monte Carlo technique to calculate the probability of failure. Reliability is then assessed by comparing the probability of failure to a code prescribed target probability. SBRA represents a departure from the traditional deterministic and semi-deterministic reliability assessment procedures and as such requires a reexamination of the current assessment process in accordance with the growing potential of computer and information technology. Two pilot examples of how SBRA can be used in Earthquake Engineering design are presented: 1) the evaluation of the fundamental period of a multistory building, and 2) the calculation of the maximum pressure on the wall of an elevated water tank due to seismic load.