System Dynamics Modeling in the Legal Arena: Special Challenges of the Expert Witness Role

摘要

In the late 1970s System Dynamics models began to be employed in legal disputes as a means ofproving and quantifying damages due from one party to another, and such use seems likely toincrease in the future. But most System Dynamics practitioners are unfamiliar with the role ofexpert witness and the obligations and responsibilities associated with it. Admissibility of thewould-be expert’s testimony is now more significant a hurdle than ever, under recentlyestablished Supreme Court guidelines that lean heavily on the scientific method.Best-practice System Dynamics work adheres to the scientific method and should proveadmissible. But many System Dynamics applications are carried out to less stringent standardsthat leave testimony based on that work vulnerable to being ruled inadmissible. Beyondadmissibility, the process of preparing to deliver expert testimony based on System Dynamicspresents unusual challenges for the practitioner.System Dynamics practitioners providing expert testimony in opposition to that of other SystemDynamicists face some special challenges. In the experience of the authors and their colleagues,the quality of opposition testimony by System Dynamics experts has been poor. Opposing experttestimony must improve significantly to meet the Supreme Court’s new admissibility standards.The stakes are high, since upcoming cases are likely to set precedents that will significantlyaffect future use of System Dynamics in the legal arena. In addition, legal admissibility willdoubtless impact the more general perceived legitimacy and acceptance of System Dynamics incorporate and other non-legal settings.