Risk assessment - its development and relevant considerations for dam safety

摘要

Although risk is a way of describing an uncertain outcome, it is often presented as an objectively-determined parameter. Objectivity and uncertainty are unnatural bedfellows. The non-objective judgements that are inevitable in handling uncertainties need to be explained and, in some areas of risk regulation, it is a condition of operation that this explanation should formally be set out in a safety case. A key question is how to ensure the robustness of expert input on risk questions. The paper outlines developments in risk assessment and discusses issues that are considered to be relevant to dam safety.