COST-EFFICIENCIES OF RD AND SUBSIDIZATION IN JAPAN FROM THE VIEWPOINT OF SOLAR CELL MANUFACTURING COST REDUCTION

摘要

This paper has two purposes. One is to validate subsidization programs to photovoltaics in Japan by estimating and comparing cost-efficiencies of R&D on and subsidization to photovoltaics from the viewpoint of solar cell manufacturing cost reduction. The other is to demonstrate that cost-effectiveness analysis is helpful for rational and persuasive planning and effective and efficient promotion of technology development. For estimating cost-efficiency of subsidization, the authors propose a definition of cost-efficiency which reflects manufacturing cost reduction through mass production effects and estimate cost reduction coefficients of mass production effects based on actual manufacturing costs of solar cells. On the other hand, the authors estimate cost-efficiencies of R&D from the viewpoints of present and future manufacturing cost reduction based on the actual and R&D goals of manufacturing costs, respectively. These different cost-efficiencies of R&D give different results of analysis. Based on the former one, start of the subsidization programs are found to have been a little earlier, but they were well planned in terms of the amount of subsidy. On the contrary, based on the latter one, the subsidization programs should find reason for existence from other points of view, such as present manufacturing cost reduction or increase of solar cell production.