STREAMFLOW TRENDS AND HYDROPOWER PRODUCTION IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN

摘要

A recent review of a proposed hydroelectric project in the Ohio River basin indicated along-term trend in hydrologic conditions which could significantly impact energyproduction at hydropower projects that are currently operating or planned for that basin.Long-term streamflow trends have ordinarily been neglected in the planning and reviewof hydropower projects. Stations in the USGS Hydro-Climatic Data Network for thebasin were updated with the most recent available streamflow data. Statistical tests andanalysis of historical data were used to evaluate for the existence and significance oflong-term trends. Analysis of annual flows in the Ohio River basin indicated a strongtrend toward increasing flow. Whether caused by climatic change or anthropogenicfactors, a persistent streamflow trend will affect the hydroelectric generation potential ata site. At low-head hydroelectric installations typical of the Ohio River, a trend towardincreased flows can cause reduced heads, more frequent plant shutdowns, and lowerefficiencies, which would result in lower future energy production than the averagegeneration developed from the long-term historic flows. This situation should be ofsignificant interest to hydro project owners, operators, and developers in the Ohio Riverbasin, because the impact of streamflow trends on energy production and overallproject economics will affect their ability to develop, rehabilitate, upgrade, expand, ortransfer ownership of hydroelectric plants in the basin.