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EFFECTS OF MAGNITUDE UNCERTAINTIES ON SEISMIC HAZARD ESTIMATES

机译:不确定度对地震危险性估计的影响

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Magnitude uncertainties affect different components of an estimate of seismic hazard in a variety of ways, but methods are available for countering such effects. Uncertainties in measured magnitudes cause bias in estimates of the Gutenberg-Richter activity-rate parameter and, if magnitude uncertainties are correlated with magnitude, in the b-value also. The combined effect can easily amount to a factor of two in estimating the frequency of occurrence of large earthquakes. The biases can be corrected if standard errors of magnitude estimates are known. In attenuation modelling, ignoring magnitude uncertainties can inflate the residual variance and lead to spurious terms being included in the model. Explicit treatment of magnitude uncertainties formally involves an extension of the usual random effects regression model. The maximum magnitude that is assumed to be possible in a given source region is highly influential on seismic hazard estimates, but also subject to much uncertainty. A substantial part of this uncertainty can be quantified from relations between earthquake magnitude and source dimensions, and used to adjust estimates of the frequency-magnitude relation. The effects of magnitude uncertainties on seismic hazard estimates are potentially large. Allowance for such uncertainties should be a standard part of seismic hazard assessment.
机译:震级不确定性以多种方式影响地震危险性估计值的不同组成部分,但是可以使用多种方法来抵消这种影响。测量幅度的不确定性会导致Gutenberg-Richter活动速率参数的估计值出现偏差,并且如果幅度不确定性与幅度相关,则b值也会出现偏差。在估计大地震的发生频率时,综合效果很容易达到两倍。如果已知幅度估计的标准误差,则可以校正偏差。在衰减建模中,忽略幅度不确定性可能会使剩余方差膨胀,并导致将虚假项包括在模型中。幅度不确定性的显式处理正式涉及通常的随机效应回归模型的扩展。假定在给定震源区域中可能达到的最大震级对地震危险性估计有很大影响,但也存在很大的不确定性。这种不确定性的很大一部分可以根据地震震级与震源尺度之间的关系进行量化,并用于调整频率-震级关系的估计值。震级不确定性对地震危险性估计的影响可能很大。允许这种不确定性应该是地震危险性评估的标准部分。

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