The Present Situation and Prospects of the World Iron and Steel Industry

摘要

This paper will present the most recent projections for world steel demand for the short and medium term prepared by the Institute for the IISI 2001 Annual Conference to be held in Seoul. Korea on 8 October. The forecasts are based on the latest information made available by IISI member companies in September (and therefore cannot be included in this summary). The level of steel use in the year 2000 was an all-time high. The medium term prospects for steel remain good. Steel continues to be the modern world's premier construction and engineering material. It is successfully resisting competition from other metals and plastics by its continuing high rate of technical innovation and increased value in use. The prospects for steel are particularly good in construction with new opportunities in residential housing. Stainless steel remains a star performer. Increasingly the criteria for material choice will be based on an assessment of sustainability. Steel is in a strong position to take advantage of this since it is one of the most recycled, energy efficient and green material choices available. However concepts of sustainability will extend to safety and terms and conditions of employment. Life cycle concepts require steel to address sustainability issues in both upstream supply industries such as ore and coke and in the down5tteam design and use of steel-containing final products, The image of the steel industry is also important - not just for material selection but in its ability to attract the best young people as new employees and in its ability to attract the necessary capital for investment. It is this last point which is of increasing concern. The prospects for steel are good but the prospects for the steel industry are not unless there is a fundamental improvement in its profitability. In recent years even the most efficient steel companies have only earned a satisfactory return on capital employed at the top of the business cycle. On average the profits earned from steel are much worse than keeping money on deposit in a bank.