System Dynamics Model of Residential and Commercial Lighting Markets

摘要

System Dynamics models are developed of the residential and commercial lighting markets. Rate of purchase of new systems are related to the installed base of existing systems, system component reliability, and construction. Buyer preferences are assumed to depend only on the characteristics of the lighting systems. Characteristics considered include price, efficacy, life, and color rendering. The preferences are represented by coefficients of a multinomial logit function are are calibrated against decades of historical data in an econometric fashion. Assuming buyer preferences stay constant for a comparable time into the future, projections are made for the market adoption of LED technology. The disruptive impact of lighting efficiency regulation is examined.