The role of sensitivity analysis. Transparency, relevance, robustness and parsimony in modelling

摘要

Sensitivity analysis (SA) is, in the opinion of most, an important element of modelling. In spite of apparent consensus, SA has been used parsimoniously in the scientific community. A paradoxical proof of this statement is the common occurrence in the literature of articles entitled (and devoted to) uncertainty analysis (UA) and SA of some given model. It is the main thesis of the present contribution that many model should undergo UA and SA as a matter of course, prior and within its use in different applications. SA should be implicitly assumed as a part of any statement based on or involving a model.