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Network Equilibrium under Cumulative Prospect Theory and Endogenous Stochastic Demand and Supply

机译:累积前景理论下的网络均衡和内源性随机需求和供应

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In this paper we consider a network whose travel demands and road capacities are endogenously considered to be random variables. With stochastic demand and supply the route travel times are also random variables. In this scenario travelers choose their routes under travel time uncertainties. Several evidences suggest that the decision making process under uncertainty is significantly different from that without uncertainty. Therefore, the paper applies the decision framework of cumulative prospect theory (CPT) to capture this difference. We first formulate a stochastic network model whose travel demands and link capacities follow lognormal distributions. The stochastic travel times can then be derived under a given route choice modeling framework. For the route choice, we consider a modeling framework where the perceived value and perceived probabilities of travel time outcomes are obtained via transformations following CPT. We then formulate an equilibrium condition similar to that of User Equilibrium in which travelers choose the routes that maximizes their perceived utility values in the face of transformed stochastic travel times. Conditions are established guaranteeing existence (but not uniqueness) of this equilibrium. The paper then proposes a solution algorithm for the proposed model which is then tested with a test network.
机译:在本文中,我们考虑一个网络,其旅行需求和道路容量被内源被认为是随机变量。随着随机需求和供应路线旅行时间也是随机变量。在这种情况下,旅行者在旅行时间不确定性下选择他们的路线。一些证据表明,在不确定性下的决策过程与没有不确定性的情况有很大差异。因此,本文适用累积前景理论(CPT)的决策框架来捕获这种差异。我们首先制定了一个随机网络模型,其旅行需求和链接能力遵循Lognormal分布。然后可以在给定的路径选择建模框架下导出随机行驶时间。对于路线选择,我们考虑一种建模框架,其中通过CPT后的转换获得了旅行时间结果的感知值和感知概率。然后,我们制定了类似于用户均衡的平衡条件,其中旅行者选择在变换的随机行驶时间面上最大化其感知的实用价值的路线。建立了保证这种平衡的存在(但不是唯一性)的条件。然后,该文件提出了一种用于所提出的模型的解决方案算法,然后用测试网络测试。

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