Aircraft Data Collection and Risk Evaluation for U.S. Army Facilities

摘要

The U.S. Army Program Manager for Chemical Demilitarization is tasked with the disposal fo the U.S. unitary chemical agent stockpile in a manner that minimizes public, workforce and environmental risks. To this end, the Army funded Quantitative Risk Assessments (QRAs) for each stockpile storage site to assess potential agent-related risks resulting from postulated accident scenarios. As part of these assessments, detailed aircraft crash risk analyses were conducted. The analyses were to be based on the recently published Department of Energy (DOE) Aircraft Crash Risk Analysis Methodology (ACRAM) standard 3014-96 [1]. However, the standard proposed calculation of aircraft crash risk based on regionally-averaged flight densities rather than on site specific data. This method proved to be too general for the chemical disposal facilities (CDFs). Instead, the prior aircraft crash analysis standard, NUREG-0800 [2], was used in conjunction with data collected and reported in DOE-STD-3014-96. Five steps were involved in the process: application of screening criteria; estimation of aircraft crash frequencies; calculation of effective target areas; evaluation of target response; and development of resultant source terms. This paper focuses on the first two steps: application of screenign criteria and estimation of aircraft crash frequencies, specifically the survey and characterizqation of aviation activity near the sites.