The status and future scenarios for Chinal's energy-related GHG emissions

摘要

As energy is the major source of GHG emissions, the assessment of the present situation and future patterns of GHG emissions from energy activities is carried out for Chinal. The OECD/IPCC methodology is adopted to estimate emissions, while the LEAP model as the tool of energy supply and demand prediction. The investigation is conducted into the current energy GHG emissions, and two scenarios are assumd for future prediction, namely BAU senario and Optimistic secnario, with the time horizon as 1990-2000, 2000-2010, 2010-2020. BAU secnario attempts to reflect as much as possible the governmental policy and plan on economic growth, economic structure, population control and energy saving, describing the possible emissions pattern in the future. Under BAU scenario, in the year 2020, CO_2 emissions from energy source would be 2.5 times as much as in 1990. Optimistic scenario pays more attention to industrial energy efficiency, coal processing, biomass use and alternative energy, and with the assumption of the maximum enhancement in GHG control, a reduction of 20