Optimizing the selection of VA activities a risk/benefit approach

摘要

This paper discusses a risk/benefit analysis aapproach to the selection of an optimal set of VV&A activities. The approach is an adaptation of MIL-STD-882C (System Safety program Requirements) to the requirements of establishing the credibility of models and simulations (M&S). Risks and benefits of M&S use are quantified in terms of impact level and probability of occurrence within the context of specific applications. These assessments are then used to determine the level of M&S credibility required to minimize risk and/or maximize benefit. The required level of credibility is then used to select the most appropriate mix of VV&A activities from a standard set of activities that is calibrated to varying levels of required credibility. The end result is an ability to objectively justify the chosen set of VV&A activities, and to monitor the impact of risk/benefit changes on VV&A requirements.