Simulating delays in policy impacts with equilibrium travel demand models

摘要

Large scale models of travel demand are in use or under construction in many countries, providing forecasts for national, regional and local authorities in addition to commercial enterprises. A large proportion of these rely on `static' models, extrapolating base-year patterns on the basis of assumed equilibria between stimuli and responses in both the base year and the forecast years. The paper examines attempts to introduce a limited dynamic element into such forecasts, by considering the varying rates at which different aspects of travel behaviour can change. The context is taken from applied research in the context of the Dutch National Structure Plan and the associated Dutch National Travel Model in the past ten years.