Stochastic modeling of long-term chronological production cost variation

摘要

Most production cost simulators (1 approx 4) currently used in the electric power industry estimate the expected production cost. However, the variation of these costs is essential in risk evalaution. Monte Carlo approaches have bene used to model the effects of unit outage characteristics on the variance of production cost. In addition, a model that estimates the variation in cost induced by the load variation is also an important topic in operational planning.