MODELLING OF NETWORK-COMPONENT-TECHNOLOGY CHANGES IN RELIABILITY-CENTERED MAINTENANCE PLANNING

摘要

A methodology for forecast of the influence of technology changes on reliability of electrical network components is presented. The approach in based on renewal theory. Component lifetime is modeled by lifetime distributions changing with time in dependence of technology development. Lifetime distributions are used for the computation of the renewal density function delivering an image of the time series of component outage frequency. A risk function is constructed by combination of renewal density with maintenance- and societal outage costs. Risk function serves as object function for maintenance optimization. Feasibility of the methodology is demonstrated by case studies performed with real-life data.