Aircraft conflict detection: A method for computing the probability of conflict based on Markov chain approximation

摘要

We study the automated aircraft conflict detection problem. Specifically, we introduce a method for estimating the probability of conflict for two-aircraft encounters at a fixed altitude. The spatial correlation between the wind perturbations to the aircraft positions is taken into account. The procedure used to estimate the probability of conflict is based on the introduction of a Markov chain approximation of the stochastic process describing the relative position of the aircraft.