Methodology of Power System Redesign under Uncertainty

摘要

Uncertainty of generations has increased since Fukushima nuclear incident occurred in the wake of the Great East Japan Earthquake. In October of 2011, the Fundamental Issues Subcommittee under METI's Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy began discussions toward reviewing the current Basic Energy Plan from zero base. It has been discussing the best possible energy mix of nuclear power, renewable energy and thermal power as of 2030. Under these circumstances, transmission system planning is getting more difficult. Transmission systems in the Kansai area have been developed based on a master plan which was designed in consideration of long-term assumption of demand growth and development of generations. After the middle of 1990's, demand growth started slowed due to saturation of population growth and increasing energy-savings of household appliances. On the other hand, transmission facilities developed during the period of high demand growth of the 1970s and 80s are getting old and need to be replaced and refurbished. Under these circumstances, replacement and refurbishment msut be regarded as an opportunity to review the structure of transmission systems that will be necessary to resolve various issues. Affront this backdrop, our team is discussing a review of the master plan in order to restructure the system at an opportunity of replacement and refurbishment of aged assets. This paper describes recent issues about transmission system planning and a methodology of power system redesign under uncertainty at an opportunity of replacement and refurbishment of aged assets.