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Online data mining for co-evolving time sequences

机译:在线数据挖掘以共同发展时间序列

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In many applications, the data of interest comprises multiple sequences that evolve over time. Examples include currency exchange rates and network traffic data. We develop a fast method to analyze such co-evolving time sequences jointly to allow (a) estimation/forecasting of missing/delayed/future values, (b) quantitative data mining, and (c) outlier detection. Our method, MUSCLES, adapts to changing correlations among time sequences. It can handle indefinitely long sequences efficiently using an incremental algorithm and requires only a small amount of storage and less I/O operations. To make it scale for a large number of sequences, we present a variation, the Selective MUSCLES method and propose an efficient algorithm to reduce the problem size. Experiments on real datasets show that MUSCLES outperforms popular competitors in prediction accuracy up to 10 times, and discovers interesting correlations. Moreover, Selective MUSCLES scales up very well for large numbers of sequences, reducing response time up to 110 times over MUSCLES, and sometimes even improves the prediction quality.
机译:在许多应用中,感兴趣的数据包括随时间演变的多个序列。示例包括货​​币汇率和网络流量数据。我们开发了一种快速的方法来共同分析此类共同发展的时间序列,以允许(a)估计/预测缺失/延迟/未来值,(b)定量数据挖掘和(c)离群值检测。我们的方法MUSCLES适应于时间序列之间不断变化的相关性。它可以使用增量算法有效地处理无限长的序列,并且只需要少量的存储和较少的I / O操作。为了使它能适应大量序列,我们提出了一种变体,即选择性肌肉方法,并提出了一种有效的算法来减小问题的大小。在真实数据集上进行的实验表明,在预测准确度方面,《肌肉》优于一般竞争对手,并且发现有趣的相关性。此外,选择性肌肉对于大量序列可以很好地扩展,与肌肉相比,响应时间最多可减少110倍,有时甚至可以提高预测质量。

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