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Stock market trend prediction based on neural networks, multiresolution analysis and dynamical reconstruction

机译:基于神经网络,多分辨率分析和动态重构的股市趋势预测

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It is well known that the stock market, viewed as a complex, open, and nonlinear dynamical system, is affected simultaneously by many factors, such as international environment, government policies, political situation, economic situation, the public psychology over some events, some rumors, and so on, which intrinsically influence each other and make the relationships very complicated. Some of these have long influences on the market, while others have short influences on it. The arguments of synergetics, cooperation and competition among the state variables led to the case in which the system is governed by only a few slow variables. But we have no way to exactly know which and how the states govern the evolution of the system. All that we have available is the observable generated by the states, time series (index price series) from the system, which carries the information on the system of interest. How can we understand the dynamics of the system from the observable, say, the evolution of the system? We reconstruct the attractor of stock market from its stock index series with respect to delay embedding theorem (F. Takens, 1981). The attractor can then be fully unfolded in our reconstructed phase space without trajectory intersections, getting a diffeomorphic copy of the original attractor. It is suffice to say that the evolution in reconstructed phase space faithfully images, on the whole, the evolution in the original phase space, consequently laying a theoretical foundation for predicting stock index series.
机译:众所周知,股票市场被视为一个复杂,开放和非线性的动力系统,同时受到许多因素的影响,例如国际环境,政府政策,政治形势,经济状况,某些事件中的公众心理,某些因素。谣言等等,它们彼此之间会产生内在的影响,并使关系变得非常复杂。其中一些对市场具有长期影响,而另一些对市场则具有短暂的影响。状态变量之间协同,合作和竞争的争论导致了系统仅由少数几个慢变量控制的情况。但是我们没有办法确切地知道哪些州以及如何控制系统的发展。我们所能得到的就是状态,系统中的时间序列(指数价格序列)所产生的可观测值,其中包含有关系统的信息。我们如何从可观察到的系统演化中了解系统的动力学?关于延迟嵌入定理,我们从其股票指数系列重建了股票市场的吸引者(F. Takens,1981)。然后,吸引子可以在我们重建的相空间中完全展开,而不会发生轨迹相交,从而获得原始吸引子的微分形副本。可以说,重建相空间的演化总体上忠实地反映了原始相空间的演化,从而为预测股指序列奠定了理论基础。

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