Technology, environment and public policy in perspective: lessons from the history of the automobile

摘要

The spread of the automobile over the course of the twentieth century has had a dramatic impact upon the environment. Drawing upon an extensive investigation of the early history of the automobile in the United States, the paper proposes a dynamic model connecting technological and environmental change. Three concepts are central to the operation of the model-technological choice, system, and scale. Technological choice solves one set of problems, but inevitably sets the stage for new, unintended consequences downstream. In the case of the automobile, all of the available technological alternatives-steam, gasoline and electricity-were preferable to continued expansion of horse-drawn transportation. As the automobile based system expanded during the middle decades of the century, the environmental constraints associated with the horse-drawn world eased; and gradually, a new set of environmental limitations began to emerge. Finally, as the automotive system grew to scale in the industrialized world in the late 1960s and 1970s, these hazards began to retard further expansion. In the context of the present discussion, the specific technology chosen was less important than the fact of its emergence as a standard. Had electric or steam powered cars become the norm, we would simply be facing a different set of environmental constraints. Implications of the model for policy making and policy making institutions are advanced.