A systems approach for collaborative decision support in water resources planning

摘要

The paper presents a decision support system (DSS) for collaborative group planning of hydroelectric development projects. The framework for planning is described with a systems approach for dynamic evaluation. Systems involving human frailties will always be complex, and that complexity will always be intimidating from a systems perspective. However, systems thinking is evolving into concepts that may help us understand how to approach complex technical problems that affect or involve people. There are currently two types of dynamic modelling paradigms understood by systems analysis. One is negative feedback, which forces system transformation toward an external goal. The second paradigm is the concept of positive feedback. Positive feedback behaves in a similar manner to many natural growth processes in which the system feedback instigates growth away from an external goal or reference point. Positive feedback systems approach initiates changes to a proposal away from the initial reference point of conflict or disjoint value systems. Its direction and pace are flexible, which may be desirable properties for group behaviour. A framework for planning hydroelectric water management policy is demonstrated as a positive system feedback approach. A decision support system is designed for interaction and participation of a group of stakeholders with a project proponent. Planning within the group setting assumes an iterative, flexible, modelling posture. Stakeholders are able to interactively adjust the system to visualize changes, designed to improve understanding of system behaviour. Experimental alternatives are compared in terms of decision robustness relative to apparent issues and preference structures. Overall, the positive feedback mechanisms of iteration and experimentation allow alternatives to be generated, assessed, and improved.