RELIABILITY CALCULATION AND PARAMETER SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF CONTINUOUSLY WELDED RAIL TRACK STABILITY

摘要

With the development of railway speedup, there is an increasing demand for track smoothness, thus it is of greater importance to study the stability of continuously welded rail(CWR)track. The design parameters that affect the stability of CWR track are random variables, which make it necessary to analyze CWR track stability by means of probability. The paper analyzes the reliability of CWR track stability by means of Monte Carlo method as well as the sensitivity analysis of design parameters by way of single parameter sensitivity analysis. The results showed that the reliability is more sensitive to the variation of lateral ballast resistance, initial deflection and the range of allowable temperature variation of CWR, and that the reliability is less sensitive to the variation of the rail fastener resistance moment coefficient. The paper presents valuable conclusions for ensuring train operation safety and improving the economic performance of maintenance and service of track.