Trialling of a New Flood Forecasting System for the Yangtze River in China

摘要

The Yangtze River Flood Control and Management Project aims to improve the reliability, accuracy and lead time of forecast flood discharges and flood levels along the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River and improve flood management. To achieve these aims a new integrated real - time flood forecasting system (FFS) for the Yangtze River catchment has been developed. The new FFS is a fully integrated catchment wide and web - based flood forecasting system. It integrates and links three different types of hydrologic modelling software systems and one hydraulic modelling software system via a custom designed user interface. To date, over 100 hydrologic models for contributing tributary catchments and 3 hydraulic models for the Yangtze and Han River main stems have been incorporated into the FFS to predict the hydrologic and hydraulic behaviour of the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River between Chongqing and Jiujiang, and the Han River downstream of the Danjiangkou Reservoir. The FFS at present forecasts flood discharges and levels at over 70 locations throughout the modelled reaches of the Yangtze River system for up to 7 days in advance. The newly developed FFS was put through its first real - time trials during the 2004 flood season. These trials have shown that the FFS is robust, quick and capable of satisfying the flood forecasting needs of the Changjiang (CWRC) Water Resources Commission. Further real—time trialling and fine tuning of the new FFS is scheduled during the 2005 flood season. This paper describes the capability of the new FFS, and presents an overview of the real - time application and operational performance of the FFS during the 2004 flood season.