STATE-OF-THE-ART REACTOR CONSEQUENCE ANALYSES PROJECT UNCERTAINTY ANALYSES: UNCERTAINTY ANALYSES FOR STATION BLACKOUT SCENARIOS

摘要

This paper provides an introduction for a specialsession on the State-of-the-Art Reactor ConsequenceAnalyses (SOARCA) Uncertainty Analyses (Uas), andprovides an overview of the NRC’s project to develop atechnical report summarizing the most important insightsfrom the three SOARCA Uas. The U.S. NuclearRegulatory Commission (NRC) with Sandia NationalLaboratories (SNL) has completed three Uas as part ofthe SOARCA program, for three different operatingreactor types in three different locations in the U.S. TheSOARCA Uas included an integrated evaluation ofuncertainty in accident progression, radiological release,and offsite health consequence projections. These threeUas are currently documented in three detailed reports.The NRC is currently developing a technical overviewreport summarizing the important insights from the threeSOARCA Uas. The purpose of this summary is to providea useful reference for regulatory applications that requirethe evaluation of offsite consequence risk from beyonddesign basis event severe accidents. Examples includeregulatory and cost-benefit analyses that rely on offsiteconsequence projections using the MACCS code, inconjunction with MELCOR for source termcharacterization. This paper, the first of four papers,provides an overview and discusses the overall scope andmethodology of the SOARCA Uas, and the approach forthe summary report currently under development.