HWMSE APPROACH FOR MACRO-ECONOMIC FORECAST AND ADJUSTMENT ISSUES

摘要

Being in the period with quick change in economic system and with fast economic development, macro economic forecast and adjustment are of special importance to Chinese government. This paper firstly discusses macro economic forecast and adjustment problems of China, then gives analysis on macroeconomic forecast and policy analysis practices by different groups after reform, including the effectiveness and difficulties of forecasts and policy analysis. The thinking and work patterns of different kinds of experts when they do macroeconomic situation analyses are estimated. Divarications and reasons of divarications in forecasts and policy given are analyzed as well. Furthermore, the role and function of Hall for Workshop of Meta-synthetic Engineering (HWMSE) in macroeconomic decision-making are discussed. The HWMSE provides economic experts a platform for collaboration, not just a place to air their opinion. In HWMSE, experts could exchange opinions to give mutual elicitation and obtain wanting information through resources sharing. Quantitative analyses tools and models of HWMSE give experts support to work together to draw plans, test and compare. Then through the combination of qualitative analyses and quantitative simulation, the mutual suspicions out of having different information, by different methods in general seminar can be avoided. At the meanwhile HWMSE provide chances for experts with different theoretic thoughts and different backgrounds to game and argue. HWMSE with trace and learning capability can keep the historical discussion and cooperation records for each expert, then the patterns could be compared by experts, and the development history of individual expert could be compared as well, this is quite useful for group work and also for expert himself in economic analyses. Finally, the foundation and patterns of macroeconomic forecast and adjustment policy analysis under HWMSE are discussed.