Research on Warning Models for Financial Crisis of Listed Manufacturing Company in China on The Basis of Logistic

摘要

The thesis selected 24 ST companies and their counterparts in the listed manufacturing companies in 2008, 2009 and 2010 as research specimens, and picked up 18 financial indexes according to the actual situation of listed companies in China and on the reference of financial index widely adopted in empirical research at the time for study. On the basis of data in 2006, 2007, 2008 for the purpose of simplifying variable and reducing dimension, it compresses the 18 index by means of factor analysis in order to analyze the 5 common factors which are closest to financial crisis of listed companies, i.e. profitability, cash flow operation, short-term debt service and long-term debt service. Further more, the thesis makes a logistic analysis to the 5 factors and finally constructs the logistic models, thus providing a tool which can predict financial crisis of company with relative accuracy for administrators to make final decision.