Safety evaluation model of dam based on catastrophe theory

摘要

Dam evaluating safety by setting safety evaluation indexes (monitoring value) was difficult in real operation and could not reflect the outburst destroy character of dam. Catastrophe theory is a kind of mathematics method that problems of transition, discontinuity, and abrupt qualitative change are studied based on analysissitus, and the theory can be used to describe the problems that how a system of successional quantitative change to evolve jumping qualitative change. Taking the level deformation of diaphragm wall about the second stage cofferdam of Three Gorges Project as an example, the safety evaluation model of dam is established based on safety monitoring theory and dissecting lemma of cusp catastrophe theory, and water level, temperature and time can be considered in the model. It can not only reflect the outburst destroy character of dam, but also evaluate the safety degree in quantity. Comparing the model with the method of believe-section estimate, analysis of example shows that the evaluating conclusion of the model is as same as the practical as well as the model is good in adaptability and precision.