The Foresight Modeling in Ensuring High Quality of Space Electronic Equipment

摘要

The methods under the generalized name Foresight have proven to be the most effective tool for selecting long-term priorities in science and technology in various industries, the success of which ultimately effects the socioeconomic development of the country. The strategic forecast in the humanitarian and technical areas often relies on statistical modeling (extrapolation to the forecast horizon, correlation, and regression analyzes, etc.). The Foresight Modeling method can most productively effect the development of the following approaches: Delphi, critical technologies, development of scenarios (options), technological roadmaps, relevance trees, analysis of mutual influence, and the formation of expert panels. In this paper, Foresight Modeling is developed in order to solve problems of ensuring high quality and reliability in the early stages of development of space electronic equipment, considering the relationship of electrical and thermal processes in it. It proposes to combine two existing groups of expert specialists in modeling w1ith dissimilar electrical and thermal factors into a single group in accordance with the integration of the mutual influence of the processes.