Hydrogen and its role in long term development strategies (case study Germany)

摘要

Looking at different current long term energy scenarios it is be the goal of the paper to describe and to discuss the future perspectives of hydrogen in the German energy system. The varying views on the future based on differences concerning social and political ideas enable to analyze the future role of hydrogen. What are the frame conditions creating incentives for hydrogen production, what are - nearly independent from system development - robust first mover markets for hydrogen applications, what kind of "bridge" technologies are pacemakers for hydrogen applications and which technologies can prepare infrastructure development and last but not least what are the important time windows in which hydrogen technologies must be ready for market penetration. Answers to these questions are necessary inputs for the further development of R&D Programs, for defining priority actions, for the preparation of infrastructure measures and for further demonstration and pilot actions as well. Together with information about the given technology options and forecasts about technology progress a road map describing a robust path to a hydrogen age in Germany can be outlined. Concerning the limited resources of capital there are no alternatives to a system based estimation of hydrogen perspectives using back- and forecasting instruments.