Telematic Systems in Real-time Management of Integrated Water Resources

摘要

Knowledge of hydrological, hydro geological, technological, social, economical and en-vironmental processes, provide, with the monitored indicators, the necessary elements for the identification of the status of the water resources system. Knowledge of this status is then used for an efficiency test of the system, in comparison with the optimal possible status consistent both with the actual conditions and with different managing, social, economical and environmental conditions, which can be configured aiming at short, medium or long-term optimisation of the system. This can be achieved comparing the actual situation with different virtual simulations in alternative hypothesis of immediate or medium to long-term realisations. Objectives and management policies may change depending on the adopted social, economical and environmental purposes. Choosing the optimal solutions is necessary to define the limits of global and sectorial sustainability in short, medium and long-term that will be assigned to the dynamic system, and the acceptability thresholds for each intervention. These programming limits enable modelling of a great amount of alternative schemes with possible projections, simulations, optimisations and comparisons among alternative solutions. The choice of mathematical models available for these purposes is very wide, ranging from deterministic, stochastic and probabilistic ones to generation of synthetic series, from the application of fuzzy systems to neural networks, from cellular automes to self-learning systems and artificial intelligence. These treatments will be followed by a wide-range comparison of different planning hypothesis aiming to dynamics optimisation, by means of a costs/benefits analysis at social, economical and environmental level; this will involve the assessment of social and environmental parameters. Comparison of alternative solutions will be performed with the aid of decision support systems, adopted with different criteria and regulations. The results attended in this step of program are the analysis of water resources and water supply systems, the simulation and forecasting with alternative objectives optimisation, the socio-economical-environmental cos/benefits analysis and the decision support systems.