THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CO_2 CAPTURE AND SEQUESTRATION ON THE CARBON INTENSITY OF THE U.S. ELECTRICITY SUPPLY SECTOR

摘要

Recent forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration predict a tightening of natural gas supplies in the United States and a resulting 60% increase in the use of coal for power generation over the next two decades. Under such a scenario, new technologies will be needed to reduce the average carbon intensity of power generation (kg CO_2 per kWh) at a rate that is consistent with the President's Global Climate Change Initiative and atmospheric stabilization in the longer-term. This analysis takes a detailed look at the U.S. electricity supply sector and the factors influencing its average carbon intensity. An interactive spreadsheet-based model allows the analysis of reduced greenhouse gas emission scenarios for electricity supply by changing assumptions for (1) the efficiency of new power plants, (2) the rate of capital stock turnover, (3) the rate of deployment of carbon dioxide capture and storage, and (4) the rate of deployment of renewable energy systems, and other parameters. Cases are presented that show the potential impact that advanced CO_2 capture and storage technology could have on net greenhouse gas emissions and carbon intensity. With lower cost CO_2 capture technology, reliable long-term storage options, and economic incentives the deployment of coal-fired power plants with CO_2 sequestration could reach 80 GW in 2025. Similarly, the use of CO_2 sequestration by natural gas-fired plants could reach 20 GW in 2025. The analysis framework shows that the application of carbon capture and storage to coal-fired power plants could strategically transform them into critical assets that are consistent with speculative, future atmospheric stabilization scenarios.