The Research of the Proper Scale of Housing Provident Loan

摘要

By the end of 2004, the national balance of accumulated provident fund was 489.35 billion Yuan, and the deposit of provident fund was 208.63 billion Yuan. This great volume of deposit fund hindered development of provident. A low proportion of the Housing Provident Loan (HPL) would cause the Housing Provident Centre(HPC)'s difficulties in covering it's overhead expense, thus the HPC would face a deficit. In this paper, the fund balance analysis of the HPC' s income and expenses were introduced to determine the lowest loan limit of HPC. On the other hand, if the HPC raised the loan proportion too much, he would take the risk of failure of providing enough provident fund for the qualified employees who want to withdraw their deposit In the paper, the expected values and the variance of cash flow were utilized to control the probability of the risk event, thus determined the highest loan proportion.