Multi-agent Simulation (MAS) Techniques for Coastal Land Use Change Modeling

摘要

The coastal area contains diverse and productive habitats important to human settlements, development and local subsidence. Planning the coastal land use plays a vital role in coastal zone management. Human-based parameters such as social values, land prices, available natural resources, etc., must be given importance thru the design of pre-determined steps to bring a situation that is mutually beneficial to all concerned entities. Land use change analysis provides a picture on how people react or adapt to environment depending on their needs and values. If these things are fully captured as basis of the land use plans, the people will feel important, thus, will uplift their sense of commitment in the planning and management of coastal areas. This study seeks in general, to explore the utility of multi-agent system (MAS) as an alternative to traditional analytical tools such as map sieving and GIS and as dynamic geographic modeling tool to coastal land use change analysis in the coastal area of Ormoc City, Philippines. The main focus of this study is to apply MAS techniques to model land use change in an attempt to understand how land-based human activities brought change to the current state of land. It is impossible for a real-world environment such as Ormoc City to be subjected to a set of controls and do experiments typical of a laboratory research. MAS enables the researcher to do experiments with it and thus provide understanding of the interactions of dynamic system components such as land uses. The expected result for this study is a simulation model to show the dynamics, particularly in land use changes, in coastal zone, which could help improve its management. The simulation model may be used to give definitive clues on the implications of proposed policies made in coastal zone management prior to their implementation.