Modeling Sustainability of Renewable Energies in Rural Areas: A Case Study for Iran

摘要

In this paper, we have developed a simple system dynamics model to put forward a perspective for explaining the consumer behavior in energy sector and addressing the obstacles facing the development of new energy systems and their sustainability in rural areas of Iran. In our model, we have presented a mechanism, by which cognitive personal concerns of consumers transforms into behavioral outcomes in rustic society, which was not discussed before this paper. Typically, it is presumed that increasing traditional alternative energy prices and influencing social mind by advertisement and publicity leads to people's inclination to renewable energies. We observed that in Iran, as the alternative prices are low due to presence of subsidy, the two aforementioned policies shall be implemented collectively and the more effective factor here is price. Furthermore, we have tested the effects of investment on individual's expertise by education and the results are portrayed. A conventional opinion suggests improvement by revenue from surplus production for consumers; however, we have proven it fallacious. Although we have done our utmost to cover the major elements while trying to save simplicity for developing our model, further research might be necessary to make any ambiguities clear.