Forecasting of future spot price is of great economic value in mixed hydro-thermal systems. Traditionally the effect of temperature on demand has been neglected in long term optimisation and simulation of such systems. This paper describes a method to take this effect into account. This affects model results both in the short and long term. In the short term there is a considerable increase in spot price volatility. In the long term the increased volatility, caused by demand variations, implies increased risk for too early emptying of reservoirs or overflow. The paper shows the resulting short-term effects, based on realistic model runs.
展开▼
