Critical Events and Critical Infrastructures: A System Dynamics Approach

摘要

Critical events like natural disasters or terrorist attacks have evolved to a realistic concern over the last decade. Anticipation and timely decisionmaking are fundamental to ensure positive outcomes, stability and safety especially with concern to Critical Infrastructure. The purpose of this paper is to promote a new framework for efficient and effective crisis management in the area of Critical Infrastructures. The main effort of the project has been to use simulation models with the purpose of investigating, reproducing and representing the interdependencies among CIs while stressed by critical events. The results of the simulation demonstrated that preparation in cases like a flooding, can prove extremely useful and make an extreme situation more manageable. Finally, elements of the human behaviour, which are the most uncertain and difficult to simulate, are the most important and can make the difference between a disaster and a manageable situation.